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Prediction for CME (2021-09-23T05:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-09-23T05:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17810/-1
CME Note: CME SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and SW in COR2A. Source: 2.8 class flare in AR 2871 with location S22E28 and eruption seen in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195 extending from AR 2871 NE and SW, with dimming and post-eruptive archades. The CME arrival at L1 is denoted by the increase in magnetic field (B total increase to above 10nT, magnetic field rotation (Bz stayed mostly positive, a clear flux rope is observed) and decrease in ion temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-26T23:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-09-26T14:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version:
Resolution:
Ambient settings:
WSA version:

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes from discussion:
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels on 26 Sep. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions
are likely on 27 Sep due to continued positive polarity CH HSS
influence coupled with the possibility of a glancing blow from the 23
Sep CMEs.

Lead Time: 55.00 hour(s)
Difference: 9.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2021-09-24T16:00Z

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